Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic was added to a chat room on the commercial chat app Signal where current US plans to counter the Houthis were discussed and was able to remain there for a long time undetected. He was even able to leave the chat room without being asked questions. This seems almost unbelievable, which has given rise to many conspiracy theories. However, none of them can explain the reasons for adding a person who has absolutely no connection to military actions and who is also a known antagonist of President Trump. The reputational losses from revealing such a situation outweigh any possible benefits and it speaks poorly of all officials involved just from a security standpoint. But let's focus on the inner workings that were revealed by this leak.
It would not be the first time JD Vance has shown disdain for the US's European allies. He has previously described them as "some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 or 40 years" when talking about their possible support for Ukraine.
I just hate bailing Europe out again.U.S. Vice President JD Vance
Such a statement not only shows a general attitude towards Europe, but it also shows ignorance of European efforts in the Middle East, and specifically what they did with regard to the Houthis.
The European Council has launched Operation Aspides on 19 February 2024. It is intended to protect some merchant ships, mostly heading to Europe, from Houthi attacks. While it cannot be said that the operation was able to turn the tide, it achieved some success. During the operation, warships from various EU countries are continuously operating in the region, which cannot be said about the US Navy. However, the US Secretary of Defense also shows disdain for European efforts and displays confidence in US capabilities:
I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC. But Mike is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this. Nobody else even close.U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth
It is worth remembering that the US has deployed a carrier strike group against the Houthis, but this has not brought any relief to shipping. Of course, current US officials can blame the Biden administration for this failure, but that will do little to restore confidence in the US ability to solve the Houthi problem. For Europe to be willing to pay the US in any way for action against the Houthis, it must first be confident in the effectiveness of these actions.
It is undeniable that the US Navy is the strongest on the planet and that the US has many bases in the Middle East. But even so, US resources are finite, and they are needed in other conflict zones. It is also true that Europe benefits more from the Suez Canal than the US. Wouldn't it make sense for the US to try to cooperate with Europe to reduce the mutual costs of confronting the Houthis and increase the chance of success? But instead, American officials are acting as if Europe begged them to take action against the Houthis and authorize strikes that have yet to produce positive results.
When the Red Sea crisis is mentioned in the public space, one can often hear references to Egypt. This is also true in this situation.
As I heard it, the president was clear: green light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return.U.S. homeland security advisor Stephen Miller
There are good reasons for this. Firstly, Egypt has lost huge amounts of money as a result of the Houthi attacks on shipping.
According to Suez Canal Authority, in 2024, Egypt's Suez Canal revenues plummeted to $4 billion, from $10.2 billion in 2023. The number of ships transiting the canal annually dropped by around 50 percent, from 26,400 in 2023 to approximately 13,200 in 2024.
In addition to the direct revenue losses from the drop of transit, the slowdown in Red Sea shipping also means a slowdown in the Egypt's imports, such as food and fuel.
Secondly, Egypt has the strongest naval force among the countries with access to the Red Sea, and this force is used to maintain stability in the region on a regular basis. In addition to sheer high combat power, Egypt has excellent logistical conditions for its use, since it relies on the mainland, and not on bases, as is the case in Western countries.
And despite all this, Egypt is not involved in any of the operations against the Houthis. Egyptian officials have made it clear on many occasions that their approach to the situation is radically different from the US view. For the US, the Red Sea crisis is caused by the Houthis, who are backed by Iran. But for Egypt, it is a consequence of Israel's actions in Gaza, and therefore a long-term ceasefire in Gaza is the solution to the Red Sea crisis.
Egypt's approach is partly driven by the highly volatile situation in the region and especially among its neighbours. Libya is a divided country, it has two governments and two separate armies, a huge number of weapons in the hands of the population and many small armed groups. Sudan is in the midst of a brutal civil war, with many people seeking refuge in Egypt. And of course, Gaza, which relies heavily on Egypt's humanitarian efforts.
In the midst of all this, sending the Egyptian navy to confront another opponent would create even more instability in the region, especially since action against the Houthis would likely be perceived domestically and regionally as indirect support for Israel. And this will mean that Egypt will lose its status as a trusted mediator, becoming a party to the conflict.
With all this in mind, it seems unlikely that the US will be able to change Egypt's position by using its actions against the Houthis as a negotiating tool, since so far these actions continue to increase instability in the region.
And if there are things we can do upfront to minimize risk to Saudi oil facilities we should do it.U.S. Vice President JD Vance
Saudi Arabia was the Houthis' main adversary until recently, and tensions between the two remain, with the Houthis directly threatening Saudi Arabia several times in the past year, calling its military "American agents."
Strikes on Saudi oil facilities could have major consequences for the US economy, so it remains a constant focus for any US administration. It is almost guaranteed that American officials will have such considerations in the event of a direct confrontation with Iran.
It is also a unique moment when one can see the reaction of officials to events that occur as a result of their decisions, outside of official statements. All members of the chat room show satisfaction with the start of strikes against the Houthis.
Great work all. Powerful start.U.S. homeland security advisor Stephen Miller
After more than a week of US strikes on the Houthis, the situation in the Red Sea is still at a gridlock, with the Houthis firing missiles at Israel and traffic through the Suez Canal reduced even further. Operation Aspides is still functioning, and Egypt and other Arab countries are still hoping for a ceasefire in Gaza that could put an end to all this.