The United Nations' nuclear watchdog has issued a confidential report urging Iran to grant inspectors access to all its nuclear sites, with particular focus on the Isfahan facility where near-weapons-grade uranium is stored in an underground complex that survived last June's US-Israeli strikes. The report, circulated to member states ahead of next week's IAEA Board of Governors meeting, comes as Tehran and Washington concluded their third round of indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday without a breakthrough but with both sides acknowledging "good progress". The diplomatic developments unfold against the backdrop of a massive American military buildup in the region, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, raising the stakes for negotiations that could determine whether the current path leads to peaceful resolution or renewed conflict.
The IAEA report confirms for the first time that Iran stored uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, just a technical step from weapons-grade levels at the Isfahan tunnel complex, which appears largely intact despite being targeted in last June's military strikes. The agency estimates Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the attacks, a quantity theoretically sufficient for multiple nuclear weapons if further enriched, though Iran maintains its program is exclusively peaceful.
While acknowledging that the military attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities created an "unprecedented situation," the IAEA stressed it is "critical" to conduct verification activities "without any further delay". The agency has lost "continuity of knowledge" over previously declared nuclear material and cannot verify whether Iran has suspended enrichment-related activities or confirm the current status of its enriched uranium stockpile. The report also raised concern that Iran has never granted access to its fourth declared enrichment facility, announced shortly before last June's attack, whose precise location and operational status remain unknown.
Thursday's negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman and headed by Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff, lasted five hours across two sessions. Both sides presented what Iranian officials described as "very important and practical proposals" covering both nuclear issues and sanctions relief. Oman's Foreign Ministry characterized the atmosphere as demonstrating "unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas and solutions," and the parties agreed to begin technical reviews in Vienna on Monday, with a fourth round of talks expected within the week.
Despite this forward movement, significant gaps remain. Reports indicate Washington demands a permanent agreement with no expiration date, requiring Iran to shut down its three main nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and transfer all remaining enriched uranium to the United States; terms Tehran has firmly rejected. Iran has signaled tactical flexibility, including willingness to cap enrichment at 3.67%, accept an international consortium for fuel supply, and place its 60% stockpile under continuous IAEA monitoring. However, Iran's red lines remain non-negotiable: the right to enrichment on its own soil, preservation of its missile program, and maintaining its regional relationships.
The diplomatic track proceeds under extraordinary military pressure. The United States has amassed two carrier strike groups, over 150 combat aircraft including F-35 stealth fighters, and reinforced bases in Jordan and Israel. President Trump has warned of consequences if talks fail, and reports suggest limited strike options are under consideration that could escalate into a broader campaign. Iran has responded with live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily closing the strategic waterway to demonstrate its ability to disrupt global oil shipments.
Analysts observe that both sides are pursuing a dual-track strategy, negotiating while visibly preparing for conflict. Some experts believe a full-scale war remains less probable than a managed escalation, as both sides recognize the catastrophic consequences of another conflict following last year's devastating 12-day war. Others warn that the scale of American mobilization is "not routine" and sends a clear signal that military options are being prepared.