Israel remained on its highest state of military alert on Monday, the eve of the United States midterm elections, as officials in Jerusalem, Washington, and across the Gulf braced for the possibility that the uneasy pause in major US military operations against Iran could end the moment American voters cast their ballots. President Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged not to launch new strikes before the vote, but he has pointedly refused to rule out action afterward, telling reporters that “most people seem to think it’s after the election”.
US officials have privately warned regional partners to prepare for possible renewed strikes and Iranian retaliation, and three Gulf Arab officials said Washington had told allies to be ready for a “short but intense” operation that could begin as early as November 4, the day after the midterms.
Ready in 96 Hours
The operational groundwork has been laid over weeks. Two US officials told CNN that forces currently deployed in the Middle East are prepared to launch a large scale strike within 96 hours of a presidential order. Unlike earlier rounds that focused on radar and missile launchers, the target list has expanded to include Iran’s energy infrastructure, military sites, and nuclear facilities. The New York Times reported that US and Israeli military planners have developed options for a “short, high intensity” campaign after the elections, potentially hitting energy infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile and drone depots.
More than ten US military transport aircraft have arrived at Israeli air bases in recent days, and US air defense systems and interceptors have been moved to Israel and other Arab allies. The commander of US Central Command, General Brad Cooper, has presented Trump with a range of military options, and the Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, who was previously skeptical of another round has reportedly shifted toward believing that Iran will not meet Washington’s minimum goals without additional military pressure.
Israel’s Role
Israeli officials have been explicit that the decision to strike rests with the White House, but they have also made clear that the Israel Defense Forces are ready to join if asked. The Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF is prepared to strike Iran alongside the US after November 3, though a wide cloud of uncertainty hangs over the specific joint goals. The Israeli Air Force has conducted exercises involving dozens of fighter jets and refueling aircraft in Syrian and Iraqi airspace toward Iran’s borders, rehearsing potential attack routes more than once. What Israeli involvement would look like in practice depends on the objectives Washington settles on.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to speak of regime change, and Mossad Director Roman Gofman is reportedly working on plans to advance that goal, but the IDF’s focus is more narrowly on threat reduction with regards to the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility, Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent highly enriched uranium, ballistic missile production sites, and strategic weapons. Israeli officials have also publicly threatened to strike Iran’s top energy facilities. The key limitation, as Israeli analysts acknowledge, is that a campaign of aerial strikes, however intense will not by itself bring down the Iranian government or change its policies, and the absence of clear US strategic objectives remains a central dilemma.
The Politics of Survival
The Israeli prime minister has emerged as the most insistent advocate for renewed war. On October 31, Netanyahu and Trump held what sources described as a “direct and sharp” phone call in which Netanyahu urged the president to resume strikes “immediately” after the November 3 midterms, expressing concern about the Qatari mediated negotiations underway with Tehran. Trump, according to the same accounts, wants to give diplomacy more time and does not want Israel interfering in the talks, though his position could shift “significantly” if negotiations fail.
Netanyahu’s urgency is inseparable from his domestic predicament. Last week’s Israeli elections left his right wing bloc with 53 seats in the 120 member Knesset, short of the 61 needed to form a government, while the opposition led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot holds 48 and Arab parties hold 19. Netanyahu remains in office during coalition negotiations, but his political future is uncertain. Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel warned that Netanyahu might resort to military and political escalation to remain in power, using the Iranian issue and the pressures surrounding the US midterms to shore up his position.
IA War Without Limits
Tehran has made clear that it will not absorb another round without responding. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered that any renewed aggression be met with an “immediate, effective” response “without any geographical limits,” and Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said a conflict with America would have “no geographical limitations”. Iranian officials have claimed that prolonged negotiations are a means of increasing pressure on Trump ahead of the midterms, and that Washington’s political reluctance to resume major combat temporarily raises the threshold for American retaliation.
US intelligence assessments warn that if the US and Israel strike again, Iran and Yemen’s Houthis will likely retaliate immediately against American personnel and facilities across the region and beyond. US officials have responded by drawing down staff at several embassies in the Middle East. The risk of a wider conflagration is real as Hezbollah could enter the fray, stretching Israel’s air defenses and prolonging the war, while Iran’s threats against Gulf infrastructure and shipping have already unsettled energy markets and regional governments.
The Political Calculus in Washington
Trump’s decision making is shaped by two competing pressures. On one side, the war is deeply unpopular at home, as his approval ratings have sunk to record lows, and Republicans face a difficult midterm environment in which the Iran conflict and the cost of living crisis are central concerns for voters. Trump and his non military advisers were worried about the impact of another round on the party’s electoral chances, which is why strikes were repeatedly postponed in August and October.
On the other side, once the election is over, the main political barrier to the use of force will have been removed. Some US officials believe Trump may be more inclined to authorize a large scale operation if Republicans lose the midterms, using the war to project strength and rally his base. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that no decision had been made, and that Trump still prefers a diplomatic resolution. But the diplomatic track, with Qatari mediated talks aimed at securing a temporary arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz and a framework for nuclear discussions has yet to produce a breakthrough, and time is running short.
A Waiting Game With No Clear End
The coming days will reveal whether November 4 becomes the start of another round of war or the beginning of a genuine diplomatic opening. Trump has said he believes the war will end “one way or the other” soon, but he has offered little clarity on what that end would look like. For the people of Iran, who have already endured months of bombardment and economic warfare, and for the civilians of Israel and the Gulf states who would bear the brunt of any retaliation, the uncertainty is its own form of punishment. As one American living in Saudi Arabia put it, “People are more cautious in general, and it feels like a waiting game to see what happens”.