The threats land in a landscape that Washington has spent months describing as a victory. In the interview, Trump claimed that Iran’s military had been destroyed, its navy and air force were gone, its economy was collapsing, and the United States controlled the Strait of Hormuz. He also claimed inflation had reached 301 percent. On November 9, he described the conflict as militarily “effectively over”. The following day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was no need for major combat operations because sanctions and the blockade were achieving Washington’s objectives.
Yet within days of those assurances, Trump was telling Hewitt that renewed action was possible. When the interviewer urged attacks on Iran’s remaining industrial base and Pickaxe Mountain, Trump said that could happen. The contradiction is not incidental. It reflects a president continuing to threaten further strikes while declaring military victory, even as control of the strait remains contested. On November 12, Trump also said Washington no longer needed an agreement with Tehran and redirected Vice President JD Vance away from negotiations.
On the same day as Trump’s interview, the open source monitoring service Hamer Intelligence Services reported that five US Air Force cargo aircraft two C-17 Globemaster IIIs and three C-5M Super Galaxies were departing the Middle East from multiple bases across CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. These aircraft are capable of moving heavy military equipment, vehicles and personnel across continents. What is unclear is whether they were carrying equipment or personnel out of the region, returning after deliveries, or simply repositioning.
Earlier movements had been in the opposite direction. On November 5, Misbar reported flight tracking data showing five C-17As and one C-5M travelling from European bases towards the Middle East, although their final destinations and cargo were not identified. The reported outbound movements could reflect deliveries, rotations or repositioning.
Tehran has issued warnings of its own. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned on Wednesday that military bases involved in an attack on Iran could become targets, including bases in Europe. His warning was explicit: “No safe distance. No safe haven. No immunity”.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said Tehran was determined to move beyond the state of “no war, no peace” and was awaiting a response to the demands it had sent to Washington through Qatari mediation. “The ball is now in the American court,” he said. The message from Tehran is that it will resist further military pressure and that the costs of another round could extend beyond Iran’s borders.
If Trump does order strikes, the war that follows may not resemble the clean, decisive campaign the White House has described. A new US campaign could target remaining nuclear facilities and missile production sites. Iran, in turn, has threatened retaliation against bases used to attack it, including those in Europe. Renewed fighting could also bring further Hezbollah attacks on Israel and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping, while making passage through the Strait of Hormuz even more dangerous.
The global economy, already affected by the energy shock of the past eight months, could face a further surge in oil prices and a deepening cost of living crisis. Opposition to the war contributed to the Republican defeat in November, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll released after the election found that 71 percent of Americans supported legislation to end the conflict. An expansion would therefore confront substantial public opposition.