Just two hours before his self‑imposed deadline to unleash “hell” on Iranian infrastructure, President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of US military operations against the Islamic Republic. The decision, which Trump described as a “double sided ceasefire”, came after a direct appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, who had requested the pause “to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war”. Crucially, the suspension is conditional: Iran must agree to the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway Tehran has effectively shut down in retaliation for the US‑Israeli offensive that began on February 28. Yet, as the ceasefire took effect, questions swirled over the timing of the announcement and the suspicious market movements that preceded it.
Under the terms announced by Trump, the United States will halt all attacks on Iranian territory for fourteen days. In parallel, Iran has committed not to strike US assets or allied targets in the Persian Gulf during the same period. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for now. Trump has made clear that if Iran does not open the strait within the two‑week window, the war will resume. “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives,” Trump said, while also revealing that Washington had received a ten‑point Iranian peace proposal that it considers “a workable basis on which to negotiate”. Tehran, for its part, has been “positively reviewing” Pakistan’s request, according to a senior Iranian official, and has insisted that any final agreement must guarantee a permanent end to the war, not merely a temporary pause. Notably, the initial reports indicated that Israel was not included in the ceasefire and would remain a target of Iranian retaliation, a detail that was later contradicted by CNN reports suggesting that Israel would, in fact, be part of the arrangement. The confusion show just how fluid and opaque nature of the negotiations, which have been conducted almost entirely through Pakistani and Turkish intermediaries.
Almost immediately after the ceasefire announcement, global oil prices took a sharp dive. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by approximately 4 per cent to $108.61 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped to $109.10. The sell‑off reflected market expectations that a temporary halt in hostilities could ease supply disruptions from the Strait, which normally carries about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas. But the price drop did not come entirely as a surprise to everyone. According to exchange data cited by Reuters, in the narrow fifteen‑minute window before Trump’s public remarks, some market participants placed roughly half a billion dollars in oil futures trades betting precisely that prices would fall. Between 6:49 am and 6:50 am New York time, around 5,100 to 6,200 Brent and WTI crude futures contracts changed hands, equivalent to more than $580 million in notional value. The volume was at least eight to ten times larger than typical levels for that time of day.
The ceasefire is, by all accounts, fragile. Tehran has repeatedly stated that it will not accept a temporary pause that fails to address the root causes of the war. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has made clear that Iran insists on a “conclusive and lasting end to the illegal war”, a demand that stands in sharp contrast to Washington’s apparent preference for a short‑term halt to fighting. Moreover, the role of Israel remains a point of contention. While some reports suggest Israel will be bound by the ceasefire, other reports say Iran will continue to target Israeli assets regardless of any US‑Iranian truce. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and no final agreement on a broader peace settlement, the two‑week pause looks less like a genuine breakthrough and more like a tactical breather, one that has already made a handful of well‑connected traders very wealthy.