Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, narrowly won Poland’s presidential election with 50.89% of the vote, defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who secured 49.11%, according to the National Electoral Commission.
The tight result, a setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European government, underscores Poland’s deep political divide and foreshadows further legislative stalemate.
The election, a runoff following a first round on May 18, saw a record 71.31% turnout for a second-round presidential vote. An initial exit poll suggested Trzaskowski might prevail, but updated results shifted in Nawrocki’s favor.
“I'm sorry that I didn't manage to convince the majority of citizens of my vision of Poland,” Trzaskowski said on X. “I congratulate Karol Nawrocki on winning the presidential election.”
The outcome prompted a more than 2% drop in Poland’s blue-chip stock index and a decline in the zloty against the euro, reflecting investor concerns over anticipated political paralysis.
Nawrocki, 42, a newcomer to politics and former head of a national remembrance institute, campaigned on prioritizing Polish sovereignty and economic policies favoring Poles over others, including Ukrainian refugees.
His victory, hailed by PiS as a “referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government,” as lawmaker Jacek Sasin wrote on X, strengthens the opposition’s ability to block Tusk’s agenda.
Like outgoing President Andrzej Duda, Nawrocki is expected to veto reforms aimed at liberalizing abortion, advancing LGBTQ rights, and reversing PiS-era judicial changes criticized by the EU.
“This may be a big challenge for the government, which will be blocked when it comes to good initiatives,” said Borys Budka, a Civic Coalition MEP, to TVP Info.
Nawrocki’s win, celebrated by eurosceptic leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who called it a “fantastic victory,” and Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who noted a “fresh victory for [European] patriots,” bolsters conservative movements in Central Europe.
Support from the U.S. MAGA movement, including a White House visit with President Donald Trump and endorsement from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, highlighted Nawrocki’s alignment with nationalist sentiments.
Despite pledging continued support for Ukraine, Nawrocki criticized President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and tapped into anti-refugee sentiment, raising concerns about Poland’s stance on Ukrainian refugees and NATO relations.
“Everything was on a knife edge,” said 32-year-old IT specialist Patryk Marek.
“But how small this margin was, it tells us how divided we are almost in half as voters.”
As Nawrocki prepares to succeed Duda in August, his presidency is poised to deepen tensions with Tusk’s government, potentially paralyzing reforms until the 2027 parliamentary election.