Rising unease has spread among Mexican officials and business leaders following renewed threats by President Donald Trump suggesting possible U.S. action against drug cartels operating in Mexico.
Comments over the weekend that cartels are “running Mexico” revived fears in Mexico City that Washington could act unilaterally.
Those concerns intensified after U.S. special forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an operation that signaled how far the administration may be willing to go.
Publicly, President Claudia Sheinbaum has rejected speculation about a U.S. invasion and sought to project calm.
Privately, officials and executives worry that even a limited strike could cause civilian casualties and destabilize Mexico’s political and economic environment.
Former ambassador Arturo Sarukhán said, “Mexico should indeed be concerned, and Mexico is going to have to thread the needle very carefully.”
Sheinbaum has responded by condemning the use of unilateral force while stressing Mexico’s commitment to international law.
Her government warned that military actions taken without a collective framework risk regional instability.
At the same time, Mexican officials have expanded cooperation with Washington to remove any justification for U.S. action.
Over the past year, Mexico has sent thousands of troops to the border, transferred high level cartel figures to U.S. custody, and allowed expanded surveillance flights.
Sheinbaum emphasized that cooperation can coexist with sovereignty, outlining principles that include mutual respect and shared responsibility.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump has “many options” to protect Americans from drug trafficking, underscoring the administration’s national security framing.
The tensions arrive at a pivotal moment for bilateral relations shaped by trade, migration, and regional security.
Mexico, the United States, and Canada are preparing to host the 2026 World Cup while also weighing whether to extend a major free trade agreement.
Business leaders fear that unilateral action could disrupt commerce and undermine investor confidence.
Analysts note that Mexico differs sharply from Venezuela, with any U.S. focus aimed at cartels rather than regime change.
Still, critics within Sheinbaum’s party argue for a tougher stance, warning that restraint may prove politically costly.
Former ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez cautioned that a strike would embolden hardliners and strain a relationship both countries depend on.