A new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has revealed the toll that the US-Israeli war on Iran has exacted on America's most advanced missile stockpiles. According to the study released on Tuesday, US forces expended nearly 50% of their Patriot interceptor missiles, more than half of their Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) interceptors, and over 45% of their Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) during Operation Epic Fury. The analysis further found that more than 20% of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs), over 30% of SM-3 interceptors and at least 10% of SM-6 missiles were also consumed in the relentless air and missile campaign.
The report's authors, Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park, have warned that restoring depleted stockpiles to pre-war levels could take between one and four years, with systems like Tomahawk cruise missiles and JASSMs facing the longest production delays. More critically, they noted that "even before the Iran war, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a peer competitor fight," and that "shortfall is now even more acute". Retired Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian, a co-author of the study, stated that "the high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific," a direct reference to America's ability to confront a near-peer adversary such as China. While the US likely retains enough munitions to continue operations against Iran if the current fragile ceasefire collapses, the remaining inventory would be inadequate for a prolonged engagement with a major military power.
In response to the depletion, the Pentagon has scrambled to project an image of readiness and resilience. Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell insisted that the US military "has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing," calling concerns over magazine depth "ill-informed and dishonorable". Centcom commander Admiral Brad Cooper, speaking alongside Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, claimed that "we are rearming. We're retooling, and we're adjusting our tactics," adding that "there is no military in the world that adjusts like we do". However, these reassurances stand in stark contrast to the stark realities outlined by the CSIS study and President Donald Trump's own request for emergency missile funding. The Pentagon is now planning to expand multi-year munitions contracts to as long as seven years, a move aimed at strengthening supply chains as part of the administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defence budget. Yet, even under optimistic scenarios, analysts warn that restoring depleted arsenals to levels adequate for a potential conflict in the Pacific will take many years, leaving a window of opportunity for America's rivals.