Iran's management of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed a hidden fault line in the global economy. While the world's attention has fixated on the spike in oil prices and the disruption of energy supplies, a far more insidious crisis is quietly brewing: the looming starvation of tens of millions of people. The United Nations has issued a stark warning that if fertilizers are not allowed through the strategic waterway within weeks, the world could witness an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.
"The planting season can't wait," Jorge Moreira da Silva, executive director of the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) and head of the UN task force, warned in an interview with AFP on Monday. "We have a few weeks ahead of us to prevent what will likely be a massive humanitarian crisis." In normal times, the Strait of Hormuz serves as the vital artery for one‑third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade, as well as 35 percent of crude oil and a fifth of liquefied natural gas. However, since Iran tightened its control over the waterway in retaliation for the devastating US‑Israeli strikes that sparked the war, tanker traffic has come to a virtual standstill. The UN task force estimates that this could cause an additional 45 million people to be forced into hunger and starvation if the impasse continues.
In a remarkable display of logistical readiness, Moreira da Silva revealed that the United Nations could have a dedicated mechanism up and running in just seven days. The proposed "one‑stop platform" would facilitate the safe passage of a modest average of five fertilizer vessels per day, a minimal flow that would nonetheless be sufficient to avert disaster for farmers across Africa and Asia. "We cannot afford to wait," he told UN News. "The planting season is upon us, and the risk of a major food crisis is real." While food prices have not yet exploded, fertilizer costs have already seen a "massive increase," leading experts to warn of a drop in agricultural productivity that will inevitably send food prices soaring.
Despite the urgency, the UN official emphasized that the missing element is not technical capacity but "political will." A growing number of countries are showing support for the plan, he said, but the United States and Iran, as well as key Gulf fertilizer producers, are not yet fully on board. The task force is designed as a limited, time‑bound exception to the principle of freedom of navigation, ensuring it does not interfere with broader political negotiations. "I want to reinforce one message: This mechanism is not against freedom of navigation, it is because freedom of navigation is not fully restored," Moreira da Silva explained. "We cannot procrastinate on what is possible to do, and what is urgent to do."
The countries that will be hit first and hardest are those already suffering from conflict and economic collapse. Sudan, Somalia, Mozambique, Kenya, and Sri Lanka are among the most vulnerable, as they are highly dependent on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region. For these nations, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a geopolitical issue; it is a direct threat to the survival of their populations.