US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has acknowledged that gasoline prices may not fall below $3 per gallon until next year, an admission that effectively guarantees American motorists will carry the financial burden of President Trump’s disastrous war on Iran all the way to the November midterm ballot box. With the conflict now in its seventh week and the Strait of Hormuz remaining firmly under Iranian control, the administration’s rosy promises of a quick economic recovery have been abandoned.
Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Wright told host Jake Tapper that while gas prices have “likely peaked,” the return to sub-$3 levels could be delayed until 2027. “That could happen later this year, that might not happen until next year,” Wright conceded. The average price for a gallon of regular gas on Sunday was $4.05, according to AAA, a sharp jump from $3.16 a year ago and nearly $2.98 just two days before the war began on February 28. The disparity in Wright’s own messaging is telling: just weeks ago, he assured the public that elevated oil prices would be a matter of “weeks, not months.” Now, with the conflict dragging on, those weeks have stretched into a prolonged period of economic strain, exposing the administration’s lack of a coherent endgame.
The prolonged price squeeze is a political nightmare for Trump and the Republican Party, who must defend slim majorities in Congress in November. Democrats have seized on the issue, with Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin warning that if Trump’s “midterm pitch to Americans is higher gas prices by Election Day, Republicans are in big, big trouble”. Republican strategists privately acknowledge the damage. Alex Conant, a Republican strategist, told the Seattle Times that “if gas prices are still $4 or $5 in November, it’s going to be very challenging for incumbents”. Trump’s own messaging has been erratic: while he once downplayed the price spike as a “short-term increase,” he now admits that prices may remain elevated through November, and could even be “a little bit higher”.
In a desperate attempt to project strength, Trump has returned to his familiar playbook of apocalyptic threats. On Sunday, he accused Iran of violating the ceasefire with attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and warned that if a deal is not reached, the US will “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran”. He claimed that closing the waterway is costing Tehran $500 million daily, while asserting that it benefits the US economy by redirecting shipping to domestic ports. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has dismissed Trump’s ultimatums, asking, “What kind of person is he to deprive a nation of its legitimate rights?”.
The economic damage is not limited to the United States. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy is at risk of a recession if the war persists, with a worst-case scenario pushing global growth below 2%. Oil prices surged close to $120 a barrel during the conflict and remain volatile, having fallen back to around $98 as the ceasefire holds. The IMF also estimates that Iran’s economy will shrink by 6.1% this year, but it projects a sharp rebound in 2027 if the war ends. However, the longer the standoff continues, the more the world economy suffers.