The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s sweeping victory in parliamentary elections has ushered in a new political chapter in Dhaka, raising questions about how the incoming government will navigate complex regional relationships shaped by years of strained diplomacy and shifting alliances.
The Election Commission confirmed the results, giving the BNP and its allies at least 212 of 299 seats, marking what observers described as the country’s first genuinely competitive election in nearly two decades.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated BNP leader Tarique Rahman on his decisive win, pledging India’s support for a “democratic, progressive and inclusive” Bangladesh and reaffirming a commitment to bilateral cooperation.
Pakistan’s leadership also extended congratulations, underscoring the broader regional implications of the vote.
Relations between New Delhi and Dhaka had deteriorated after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India following the 2024 uprising that ended her 15-year rule.
India’s refusal to extradite Hasina, who faces a death sentence in absentia over the 2024 security crackdown, remains a major irritant.
Cross-border visa services have been largely suspended, transport links curtailed and trade tensions heightened.
Analysts say a reset is possible but will require restraint on both sides.
Rahman signaled an emphasis on sovereignty at a recent rally, declaring: “Not Dilli, not Pindi - Bangladesh before everything,” a message seen as distancing Dhaka from both India and Pakistan.
Security cooperation, including joint military exercises and defense credit arrangements, is expected to continue despite past mistrust during earlier BNP administrations.
The BNP’s return to power also comes amid renewed engagement between Bangladesh and Pakistan, including the resumption of direct flights and expanded security discussions.
Trade between the two countries climbed 27% in 2024-25, reflecting warming ties after years of limited contact.
China, which expanded infrastructure and defense cooperation under Hasina, quickly congratulated the BNP and signaled readiness to deepen relations.
Analysts suggest Dhaka will pursue a more transactional and balanced approach, maintaining economic ties with Beijing while managing sensitivities with India and navigating broader India-Pakistan and China-India rivalries.
Geography, trade and security links bind Bangladesh closely to India, but the new government appears intent on recalibrating its foreign policy under a “Bangladesh First” framework.
Whether this shift leads to a durable reset or a managed rivalry may depend on how both Dhaka and New Delhi temper rhetoric and address longstanding disputes.